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The INE was established after the infamous 1988 election, during which the PRI party, coming off six decades of one-party rule, claimed a computer crash had stopped the vote count just as it looked favorable for opposition candidate Cuauhtémoc Cárdenas. By the time the PRI-controlled interior ministry claimed to have solved the technical problem, their candidate, Carlos Salinas de Gortari, had pulled ahead. 

In order to prevent a repeat of that chicanery, the INE uses independent experts to oversee the process who serve 9-year terms that don’t align with presidential terms. It also recruits ordinary citizens to manage individual polling places as a civic responsibility, similar to jury service in the United States. Representatives from all parties monitor every step of the process and the system has proven resilient in returning free and fair elections despite challenges such as increasing political violence and a lack of infrastructure in rural regions.

López Obrador’s proposed changes would reduce the terms of service for INE election overseers to 6 years — the same length as the country’s presidential term — and make the positions directly elected, increasing their exposure to partisan political pressure, according to Campero.

López Obrador’s “Plan B” package passed by the Chamber of Deputies would also reduce the budget of the INE and give the federal government more control over expenditures.

“Elections are a process Mexicans actively participate in, and the INE is the only institution in Mexico which has such high approval,” Campero said. “That’s why we had the outpouring of the people that we saw: It was really not against proposed changes to the law, it was not a march against the president, much less in favor of somebody else. It was a demonstration of how important Mexicans believe this institution is for our own democracy.”

But the real value of such a public demonstration against the president may have been to show members of the opposition that their own voters would not tolerate cooperation with the administration on this issue. Morning Consult trend data shows López Obrador hovering around a 42% approval rating among PRI voters, for example, which has been enough to make some lawmakers see the value of cooperation in the past. 

“This demonstration sent a very clear message to the other parties of the risks they would run if they vote in favor of this reform, as they did, for example, when the PRI voted with AMLO in favor of the militarization of public works and other aspects of civil society,” Campero said.

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