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The American electorate’s sympathy for the Palestinian people has reached a high point as more voters disapprove of how Israel is handling its war in Gaza and fewer voters than before say they support U.S. military assistance to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government. 

According to Morning Consult's latest survey tracking public opinion in the United States about Israel’s latest war with Hamas, 15% of voters said they are most sympathetic with the Palestinian people, up from 9% at the start of the conflict. Roughly a third of voters (32%) still hold solace for both sides equally, along with 31% who sympathize the most with the Israeli people.

The increase in concern for Palestinians has been driven by Democratic and independent voters. Nearly a quarter of Democratic voters (23%) said they are most sympathetic with the Palestinian people (up from 15% in October), along with 13% of independent voters (up from 6% at the start of the conflict). 

Along with the shift in compassion, there’s also been an increase in support for a cease-fire since a month into the conflict — and an intense one, at that, on the Democratic side of the aisle.

Three in 5 voters said they support calls for a cease-fire, up from 53% in November. The feeling is strongest among Democratic voters, 3 in 4 of whom back an end in fighting — including 53% who “strongly back a cease-fire.” 

The American public’s desire for a suspension of hostilities between Israel and Hamas comes amid a divide in American public opinion on how Israel is handling the war. 

While roughly 3 in 10 voters still do not have views on the matter, the share who disapprove of how Israel is conducting its military campaign against Hamas has increased from 28% to 33% since January, largely attributable to a surge in disapproval among Democratic voters. 

As has been the case in our previous surveys, independent voters are slightly more likely to disapprove than approve of Israel’s military campaign, while roughly half of Republican voters said they are OK with what they’re seeing. 

The electorate’s shifting sympathies and views on Israel’s conflict have set up a problem for Netanyahu’s government: Fewer voters than ever before support American military assistance for Israel.

According to our March survey, 44% of voters — driven by roughly half of Republicans — said they are in favor of sending American military aid to Israel, far less than the 61% who support providing humanitarian aid to the Palestinians.

The bottom line

On the political front, shifting public sentiment regarding Israel helps explain the recent postures of both President Joe Biden and his presumptive Republican challenger, former President Donald Trump. 

When a Biden speech at a major fundraising event was interrupted by pro-Palestinian protestors raising human rights concerns about Isarel’s military actions, Biden responded by saying, “They have a point.” Trump, on the other hand, urged Israel to “finish up” its war, noting how the country is “losing a lot of support.” 

The movement away from Israel’s current posture on the left, and weak support on the right, is reflected in the kind of help the American people are willing to give to its closest ally in the Middle East. 

This could relieve some pressure on Capitol Hill lawmakers to advance a supplemental funding package for America’s allies, especially if Netanyahu’s campaign turns more violent, as the war in Gaza — and the war in Ukraine — linger near the bottom of the electorate’s voting priorities for November.

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